+7 495 / 660 14 38
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  • Ñïðàâêà î ãðóïïå ÃÔÒ
  • Ðóêîâîäñòâî ãðóïïû ÃÔÒ
  • Îôèöèàëüíàÿ èíôîðìàöèÿ
  • Ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâî
  • Ìû â ÑÌÈ
  • Íîâîñòè
  • Íàø âçãëÿä íà ðûíîê
  • Âàêàíñèè
  • Êîíòàêòû

Ðîññèÿ ìîæåò óòðàòèòü èìïóëüñ ê ðîñòó.

Êðóïíåéøèå ýêîíîìèêè ìèðà áóäóò ðàñòè áîëåå óìåðåííûìè òåìïàìè â áëèæàéøèå ìåñÿöû, à Áðàçèëèÿ, Èíäèÿ, Ôðàíöèÿ è Èòàëèÿ áóäóò ðàçâèâàòüñÿ ìåäëåííåå, ÷åì îñòàëüíûå. Òàêèå âûâîäû ñëåäóþò èç îáíàðîäîâàííûõ äàííûõ ñâîäíûõ îïåðåæàþùèõ èíäèêàòîðîâ Îðãàíèçàöèè ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà è ðàçâèòèÿ (ÎÝÑÐ). Îïåðåæàþùèå èíäèêàòîðû ôèêñèðóþò ñèãíàëû î ïîâîðîòå ýêîíîìèêè îò öèêëà ðîñòà ê ñíèæåíèþ è íàîáîðîò.

Àíàëèòèêè ÎÝÑÐ çàÿâèëè, ÷òî îïåðåæàþùèé èíäèêàòîð ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé àêòèâíîñòè â 34 ñòðàíàõ-÷ëåíàõ îðãàíèçàöèè íå èçìåíèëñÿ ñ àïðåëüñêîãî ïîêàçàòåëÿ â 103 ïóíêòà.  íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ òåìïû ðîñòà ýêîíîìèêè ìîãóò áûòü íåóñòîé÷èâûìè, îïàñàþòñÿ â ÎÝÑÐ.  ñòðàíàõ åâðîçîíû, ÷ëåíàõ ÎÝÑÐ, ýêñïåðòû çàôèêñèðîâàëè ñíèæåíèå èíäèêàòîðà ñ 103,1 ïóíêòà â àïðåëå-2011 äî 102,8 ïóíêòà â ìàå. Àçèàòñêàÿ «áîëüøàÿ ïÿòåðêà» (Êèòàé, Èíäèÿ, Èíäîíåçèÿ, ßïîíèÿ è Þæíàÿ Êîðåÿ) òàêæå çàìåäëèëà ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé ðîñò — èíäèêàòîð ñíèçèëñÿ ñ 101,4 äî 101 ïóíêòà.

«Ñâîäíûå îïåðåæàþùèå èíäèêàòîðû…óêàçûâàþò íà óìåðåííóþ ïîòåðþ òåìïîâ ðîñòà â áîëüøèíñòâå êðóïíûõ ýêîíîìèê», — ãîâîðèòñÿ â åæåìåñÿ÷íîì îáçîðå ÎÝÑÐ.

Íàèáîëüøåå ïîçèòèâíîå èçìåíåíèå îïåðåæàþùåãî èíäèêàòîðà â ìàå áûëî çàôèêñèðîâàíî â ýêîíîìèêå ÑØÀ — íà 2,8% ãîä ê ãîäó (ôàçà ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà). Äëÿ ðàçâèòûõ ýêîíîìèê, ïî ïðîãíîçó ÎÝÑÐ, âñïëåñê â ÑØÀ ìîæåò áûòü êîìïåíñèðîâàí âåðîÿòíûì çàìåäëåíèåì âî Ôðàíöèè (-1,3%), Èòàëèè (-2%) è Êàíàäå (-0,8%).

Ñðåäè ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ýêîíîìèê àíàëèòèêè âèäÿò áîëåå ÷åòêèå ïðèçíàêè òîãî, ÷òî ðîñò çàìåäëèòñÿ: äîëãîñðî÷íàÿ òåíäåíöèÿ äëÿ Áðàçèëèè è Èíäèè — ðîñò íèæå ñðåäíåãî (-3,3% è -2,9% ñîîòâåòñòâåííî); äëÿ Êèòàÿ — «âåðîÿòíîå çàìåäëåíèå ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà» (-1,6%), à äëÿ Ðîññèè — «ïåðâûå ïðèçíàêè ïîòåðè èìïóëüñà ê ðîñòó».

Êðóïíåéøèå ðàçâèâàþùèåñÿ ýêîíîìèêè ìèðà ñòîëêíóëèñü â íåäàâíåå âðåìÿ ñî ñêà÷êîì èíôëÿöèè, ìíîãèå èç íèõ (Êèòàé, Áðàçèëèÿ, Èíäèÿ, Ðîññèÿ â òîì ÷èñëå) ïðåäïðèíèìàþò ìåðû äëÿ îõëàæäåíèÿ ñâîèõ ýêîíîìèê, äîáàâëÿåò àíàëèòèê UFG Wealth Management Àíòîí Òîëìà÷åâ. Íî â ñëó÷àå ñ Ðîññèåé äåëî îáñòîèò íåñêîëüêî èíà÷å, ÷åì â äðóãèõ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàíàõ, ñ÷èòàåò ýêñïåðò: åå ýêîíîìèêà çàâèñèìà îò öåí íà íåôòü, ïîýòîìó «èìïîðò èíôëÿöèè» ñëîæíî ïðåîäîëåòü òàêèì îáðàçîì, ÷òîáû òåìïû ðîñòà ñåðüåçíî íå çàìåäëèëèñü.

Îïåðåæàþùèé èíäèêàòîð ÎÝÑÐ äëÿ Ðîññèè ñíèçèëñÿ ñ 104,8 ïóíêòà â àïðåëå äî 104,6 â ìàå (-0,1%). Ïðè ýòîì èíäèêàòîð ôèêñèðóåò ñòàáèëüíîå çàìåäëåíèå ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé àêòèâíîñòè â ÐÔ ñ íà÷àëà òåêóùåãî ãîäà, êîãäà çà ÿíâàðü èíäåêñ âûðîñ íà 0,4% ê äåêàáðþ, â ôåâðàëå — íà 0,2% ê ÿíâàðþ, â ìàðòå — íà 0,1% ê ôåâðàëþ, â àïðåëå îñòàëñÿ íà ìàðòîâñêîì óðîâíå, à â ìàå óøåë â ìèíóñ íà 0,1%.

 Ðîññèè ýòà ïîòåðÿ «èìïóëüñà ê ðîñòó» ïðîÿâëÿåòñÿ â òîì, ÷òî, íåñìîòðÿ íà î÷åíü çíà÷èòåëüíûé ðîñò öåí íà íåôòü çà ïîñëåäíèå ìåñÿöû, ó íàñ íå ïðîèñõîäèò óñêîðåíèÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà, ñ÷èòàåò ýêîíîìèñò Àëüôà-áàíêà Íàòàëèÿ Îðëîâà.

«Çà ïåðâûé êâàðòàë òåìïû ðîñòà ÂÂÏ îöåíèâàþòñÿ â 4,1% ãîä ê ãîäó, à â àïðåëå, ïî ïåðâûì äàííûì, — â 3,3%, — ïðèâîäèò äàííûå ýêîíîìèñò. — Ôàêòè÷åñêè ìû âèäèì ñèòóàöèþ, ïðè êîòîðîé ýêîíîìèêà íå ìîæåò âîñïîëüçîâàòüñÿ ðàñòóùèìè äîõîäàìè îò ýêñïîðòà. Ðåàëüíûé ñåêòîð íå ïðåäúÿâëÿåò ñïðîñ íà òå ôèíàíñîâûå ðåñóðñû, êîòîðûå ýêîíîìèêà çàðàáàòûâàåò íà âíåøíåé òîðãîâëå, è ýòè äåíüãè óõîäÿò â âèäå îòòîêà êàïèòàëà».

Ñ íà÷àëà ãîäà îòòîê êàïèòàëà èç ñòðàíû ñîñòàâèë îêîëî 35 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ. «Ýòà íåñïîñîáíîñòü ïðèíÿòü ôèíàíñîâûå ðåñóðñû è óõîä ýòèõ äåíåã [äîõîäîâ îò ýêñïîðòà] ÷åðåç îòòîê êàïèòàëà ãîâîðÿò î òîì, ÷òî, ïî âñåé âèäèìîñòè, ýòî ñòðóêòóðíûå îãðàíè÷åíèÿ òåìïà ðîñòà â Ðîññèè». Ýêîíîìèñò Àëüôà-áàíêà îðèåíòèðóåòñÿ íà ðîñò ÂÂÏ â ýòîì ãîäó «÷óòü íèæå, ÷åì 4%».

Ìåæäóíàðîäíûé âàëþòíûé ôîíä æäåò, ÷òî â ýòîì ãîäó ðîññèéñêèé ÂÂÏ âûðàñòåò íà 4,8%, à ðîñò ýêîíîìèêè Ðîññèè â ñðåäíåñðî÷íîé ïåðñïåêòèâå áóäåò íèæå 4%. Òàêîé ïðîãíîç îçâó÷èë ãëàâà ìèññèè ÌÂÔ â Ðîññèè Þõà Êàõîíåí. «Ê ñîæàëåíèþ, ïðîâîäèìàÿ íûíå ïîëèòèêà [ðîññèéñêîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà] íåäîñòàòî÷íî àìáèöèîçíà», — ïîÿñíèë ñòîëü íåâûñîêèé ïðîãíîç ïî ðîññèéñêîìó ÂÂÏ íà ñðåäíåñðî÷íóþ ïåðñïåêòèâó Êàõîíåí.

Ïðàâèòåëüñòâî âûíóæäåíî ïðîâîäèòü «íåàìáèöèîçíóþ ïîëèòèêó» â óñëîâèÿõ çàâèñèìîñòè áþäæåòà îò íåôòÿíûõ äîõîäîâ, ñëàáîé äèâåðñèôèêàöèè ýêîíîìèêè è ãðÿäóùèõ ïðåçèäåíòñêèõ è ïàðëàìåíòñêèõ âûáîðîâ. Âñå ýòè ôàêòîðû âðÿä ëè ïîçâîëÿò ïîâûñèòü òåìïû ïðîðîñòà ÂÂÏ çíà÷èòåëüíî âûøå 4%, ñ÷èòàåò Äìèòðèé Åìåëèí, äèðåêòîð äåïàðòàìåíòà êàçíà÷åéñòâà Ðóñü-Áàíêà. «Åñëè öåíû íà íåôòü áóäóò äåðæàòüñÿ íà óðîâíå 100-105 äîëëàðîâ çà áàððåëü, òåìïû ðîñòà ýêîíîìèêè Ðîññèè íå ïðåòåðïÿò ñóùåñòâåííûõ èçìåíåíèé», — äîáàâëÿåò ýêñïåðò BFM.ru.

Îäíàêî çàìåäëåíèå â ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàíàõ íàìåòèëîñü èìåííî ïîòîìó, ÷òî ìíîãèå ðàçâèâàþùèåñÿ ñòðàíû, âêëþ÷àÿ Ðîññèþ, ñòàëè ïîâûøàòü ïðîöåíòíûå ñòàâêè â ðàìêàõ áîðüáû ñ èíôëÿöèåé, óâåðåí Àëåêñåé Ìàòðîñîâ, ðóêîâîäèòåëü àíàëèòè÷åñêîãî îòäåëà ÃÊ Broco. «Îêîí÷àíèå ïðîãðàììû êîëè÷åñòâåííîãî ñìÿã÷åíèÿ â ÑØÀ, êîòîðîå ïðîèçîéäåò ëåòîì, ïðåäïîëîæèòåëüíî, ñêàæåòñÿ íåãàòèâíî íà äîëãîâûõ ðûíêàõ ÑØÀ, ÷òî âûíóäèò èíâåñòîðîâ èíâåñòèðîâàòü â áîëåå âûñîêî äîõîäíûå ðûíêè, êîòîðûìè è ÿâëÿþòñÿ íà äàííûé ìîìåíò ðûíêè Ðîññèè Áðàçèëèè Èíäèè è Êèòàÿ», — îïòèìèñòè÷íî íàñòðîåí Ìàòðîñîâ.

Âîçâðàò ê ñïèñêó